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.62048.4207.1211.1255.7961.010940.01630.2113.13095.719821761.62162.3220.7236.7198.61230.411281.01784.2115.33280.119831960.82375.6270.6264.9231.41430.111515.02039.0117.63518.719842295.52789.0316.7327.1412.41832.911890.02515.1120.83777.619852541.63448.7417.9406.9878.42543.212358.03457.5132.04117.619862763.93967.0525.7475.6943.23120.612809.03941.9140.64507.019873204.34585.8665.8544.91159.33791.713214.04462.0150.94985.219883831.05777.2810.0661.01618.04753.813608.05700.2179.35466.819894228.06484.0794.0786.01687.04410.413742.06332.7211.55865.319905017.06858.0859.41147.51419.74517.014059.06747.0218.16230.419915288.68087.11015.11409.72087.05594.514508.07868.0225.56804.019925800.010284.51415.01681.82735.08080.114792.010086.3239.97589.219936882.114143.82284.72123.23090.713072.314849.015717.7275.28426.519949457.219359.63012.62685.94050.417042.114849.020341.1341.59260.4199511993.024718.33819.63054.74932.320019.314908.025470.1399.910023.4199613844.229082.64530.33494.05560.322913.514845.028784.9433.110764.3199714211.232412.14810.63797.26159.924941.114668.029968.0445.311284.4199814552.433387.95231.44121.36579.128406.212337.031314.2441.711598.4199914472.035087.25470.64460.36910.329854.711773.032951.5435.512305.2200014628.239047.35888.05408.67316.032917.711259.034842.8437.313471.4200115411.842374.66375.45968.37918.837213.510792.039769.4440.314633.5200216117.345975.27005.06420.38476.743499.910558.045565.0436.816331.5200316928.153092.98181.26644.39238.455566.610492.055963.0442.019031.6200420768.162815.19572.17694.210098.570477.410575.969168.4459.321971.4表7.11

编号货运总量

y(万吨)工业总产值x1(亿元)农业总产值x2(亿元)居民非商品支出x3(亿元)116070351.0226075402.4321065402.0426574423.0524072381.2622068451.5727578424.0816066362.0927570443.21025065423.09.在研究国家财政收入时,我们把财政收入按收入形式分为:各项税收收入,企业收入,债务收入,国家能源交通重点建设基金收入,基本建设贷款归还收入,国家预算调节基金收入,其他收入等.为了建立国家财政收入回归模型,我们以财政收入y(亿元)为因变量.自变量如下:x1——农业增加值(亿元),x2——工业增加值(亿元),x3——建筑业增加值(亿元),x4——人口数(万人),x5——社会消费总额(亿元),x6——受灾面积(万公顷).据《中国统计年鉴》获得1979—1998共20个年分的统计数据,见表7.12.由定性分析知,所选自变量都与变量y有较强的相关性,试做出一个较为理想的回归方程.

表7.12

年份农业

x1工业

x2建筑业

x3人口

x4最终消费

x5受灾面积

x6财政收入

y19781018.41607.0138.2962592239.1507601132.319791258.91769.7143.8975422619.4393701146.419801359.41996.5195.5987052976.1445301159.919811545.62048.4207.11000723309.1397901175.819821761.62162.3220.71016543637.9331301212.319831960.82375.6270.61030084020.5347101367.019842295.52789.0316.71043574694.5318901642.919852541.63448.7417.91058515773.0443702004.819862763.93967.0525.71075076542.0471402122.019873204.34585.8665.81093007451.2420902199.419883831.05777.2810.01110269360.1508702357.219894228.06484.0794.011270410556.5469902664.919905017.06858.0859.411433311365.2384702937.119915288.68087.11015.111582313145.9554703149.519925800.010284.51415.011717115952.1513303483.419936882.114143.82284.711851720182.1488304349.019949457.219359.63012.611985026796.0550405218.1199511993.024718.33819.612112133635.0458216242.2199613844.229082.64530.512238940003.9469897408.0199714211.232412.14810.612362643579.4534298651.1199814599.633429.85262.012481046405.9501459876.0表7.13

年份x1x2x3x4x5x6y1y2y3y4猪(毛重)生产价格指数(1977年为100)粮食产量(万吨)粮食零售价格指数(1977等于100)农村居民人均纯收入(元)乡村总人口数(万人)全国人均猪肉消费量(斤)肉猪出栏头数(万头)生猪年底存栏头数(万头)猪肉产量(万吨)出口活猪数量(万头)1978100.3030476.50101.30133.6079014.0015.3416110.0030129.00975.30246.281979124.7733211.50105.05160.2079047.0019.3218768.0031971.001001.35242.211980127.7732055.50108.72191.3079565.0022.3119861.0030543.001134.10246.281981128.0232502.00112.97223.4079901.0022.1519495.0029370.001188.42257.421982128.1535450.00113.19270.1080174.0023.5120063.0030078.001271.80264.961983127.7738727.50113.08309.8080734.0024.6920661.0029854.001316.10262.061984130.4540730.50112.85355.3080340.0026.0322047.0030679.001444.70249.241985157.9737910.80125.15397.6080757.0027.9823875.2033139.601654.70296.001986164.9339151.20136.79423.8081141.0028.8225721.5033719.101796.00310.001987195.6040473.30145.27462.6081626.0029.0026177.0032773.301834.90302.001988294.5839408.00165.76544.9082365.0029.8227570.3034221.802017.60303.001989325.5140754.90201.06601.5083164.0031.1229023.3035281.002122.80297.001990302.4044624.30191.41686.3184138.0029.0030991.0036240.802281.10300.001991292.1143529.30207.87708.6084620.0034.8832897.0036965.002452.30285.001992310.5244265.80258.39784.0084996.0036.4435170.0038421.002635.30290.001993355.5445648.80329.96921.6085344.0028.3037823.8039300.102854.40272.001994549.6744510.10490.651221.0085681.0027.3242103.2041461.503204.80270.001995637.6246661.80659.431577.7485947.0027.8248051.0044169.203648.40253.001996651.6450453.50708.891926.1085085.0028.8741225.2036283.603158.00240.001997717.4649417.10652.892090.1084177.0026.8446483.7040034.803596.30227.001998594.7751229.50632.652162.0083153.0027.7850215.1042256.303883.70219.001999506.7550838.60609.872210.3082038.0029.6151977.2043144.204005.60196.002

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